Background:In Brazil the National Program for Tobacco Control is working for more
than 30 years, and as consequence we can observe the reduction of smokers. The
aim of this study is to evaluate the temporal trends in lung cancer mortality
rates in Brazil observed from 1980 to 2015, and predicted estimates by 2040, by
gender.
Methods:A time series study was carried out, using data from the Mortality
Information System and information on the resident population obtained from the
Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics. Crude, specific and age-standardized
mortality rates per 100,000 men (and women) were calculated for each year
between 1980 and 2015. Mortality predictions were made for the period 2016-2040
utilizing Nordpred program based on the period of 1980-2015, using the APC
(age-period-cohort) model.
Results:While the decline in age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates has
been most clearly observed for men since 2006, for women we will still
experience a period of growth of these rates (2016-2025) followed by a period
of stagnation (2026-2040) (Figure 1). Projections indicate that women aged 55-59
or younger will begin to experience a reduction in especific lung cancer
mortality rates from 2021 onwards, but for women aged 75 or over these rates
will continue to increase until 2040.
[Figure 1]Conclusions:The decline in lung cancer mortality among men since 2006, but not among
women, reflects not only the different stages in the tobacco epidemic by
gender, i.e., women started smoking after men, but also the successful
implementation of a set of tobacco control actions in Brazil in the last 30
years. The last contributed to a strong reduction in the prevalence of smokers
and, as a consequence, to a decline in current (and future) smoking-related
morbidity and mortality.