The prevalence of illicit cigarette consumption and related factors in Vietnam: results from GATS 2015
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1
Thuongmai University, Faculty of Economics and Law, Viet Nam
2
Vietnam University of Commerce, Viet Nam
3
Hanoi University of Public Health, Viet Nam
4
Hanoi Medical University, Viet Nam
5
Vietnam Ministry of Health, Viet Nam
6
World Health Organisation, Country Representative Office, Viet Nam
7
General Statistics Office, Viet Nam
Publication date: 2018-03-01
Tob. Induc. Dis. 2018;16(Suppl 1):A686
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ABSTRACT
Background:
Illicit trade is one of
the main obstacle to tobacco tax and other tobacco control policy reform in
Vietnam. The tobacco industry gives different estimates on the size of illicit
trade and claims that increasing tax will only drive smokers to illicit products
and increase government revenue loss. This study examines the illicit cigarette
consumption in Vietnam and its related factors.
Methods:
Data used in this research were from the Global Adult
Tobacco Survey conducted in Vietnam in 2015. This is a national representative
survey with sample size of nearly 9000 individuals. Descriptive statistics analysis was carried
out to estimate the size and examine the patterns of illicit cigarette
consumption.
Results:
The estimated market share
of illicit cigarettes in Vietnam is 26%. More illicit cigarette consumption was
found in urban area and in provinces in the south.
The average price of illicit
cigarettes was 50% higher than the average price of legal cigarettes. This
suggests that price is not the driving factor in choosing to use illicit
cigarettes. This result different from other countries in the region where
usually illicit cigarettes are cheaper.
There is no significant
difference in age, asset-index quintile between illicit and legal cigarette
smokers.
64% of illicit cigarette smokers
reported buying from kiosks, 34% reported buying from tea stalls and street
vendors. This suggest illicit cigarettes can be accessed rather easily in
domestic market.
Conclusions:
As illicit cigarettes are more expansive and price is
not the driving factor, tax on cigarettes can be increase higher to reduce
total consumption without having too much impact on the illicit trade market.
Smuggling control activities should be reinforced in
domestic markets to reduce the easiness of smokers in seeking and buying
illicit cigarettes.